The narrative vs. the numbers
"San Francisco is dead." "Tech exodus kills SF housing." You have seen the headlines. They have been running since 2020, and they paint a picture of a city in terminal decline. But what does the actual neighborhood-level data say?
We pulled the latest transaction data for every San Francisco zip code tracked on BidNest, covering all residential property types. The reality is far more complex than a single narrative can capture. Some SF neighborhoods are among the most competitive in the country. Others are genuinely struggling. The city is not dying -- it is splitting in two.
The hottest neighborhoods: still ferociously competitive
The top-performing SF zip codes show competitiveness levels that would make any buyer sweat:
94146 (Noe Valley / Glen Park area) leads the city with a competitiveness index of 92 out of 100, a median sale price of $3,350,000, and an astonishing overbidding score of 34.3%. Homes here sell in just 9 days on average. That is not a dying market -- that is a frenzy.
94132 (Lake Merced / SFSU area) scores 83 on competitiveness with a more accessible median of $1,281,500. Overbidding averages 12.5% and homes move in 14 days.
94116 (Sunset / Parkside) clocks in at 80 competitiveness with a $1,750,000 median and a 25.5% overbidding score. Homes sell in 13 days.
94122 (Outer Sunset) follows closely at 78, matching the $1,750,000 median with 21.3% overbidding and 14 days on market.
94127 (St. Francis Wood / Miraloma) scores 76 with a $2,300,000 median, 15.7% overbidding, and 12 days on market.
These numbers tell a clear story: the westside family neighborhoods and premium enclaves remain intensely competitive. Buyers in these areas should expect to pay well over asking and move fast.
The middle tier: competitive but approachable
Several neighborhoods sit in the 55-75 competitiveness range, offering a more balanced buying experience:
94114 (Castro / Noe Valley) scores 75 with a $2,250,000 median and 13.9% overbidding, but has 41 units of inventory -- giving buyers more options than the hottest zip codes.
94112 (Ingleside / Excelsior) also scores 75 with a much lower $1,160,000 median. At 13.7% overbidding and 32 units of inventory, this remains one of SF's best value-for-competition neighborhoods.
94121 (Outer Richmond) scores 65 with a $2,199,000 median and 10.8% overbidding. At 23 units of inventory and 21 days on market, this is a competitive but navigable market.
94117 (Haight-Ashbury / Cole Valley) matches at 65 competitiveness with an $1,801,000 median, 7.1% overbidding, and 17 units available.
The cooling zones: where the headlines come from
The lower end of the competitiveness spectrum reveals genuine softness in specific parts of the city:
94105 (SoMa / Rincon Hill) scores just 15, with a $1,200,000 median, 46 days on market, and sellers actually accepting 3.4% below asking on average. With 62 units of inventory, supply clearly exceeds demand here.
94103 (South of Market) is even softer at a competitiveness index of 9. The $1,070,000 median comes with 68 days on market and sellers accepting 2.3% below asking. With 56 units sitting on the market, this is a buyer's market by any definition.
94109 (Nob Hill / Russian Hill) scores 18 despite prestigious addresses. At $1,050,000 median and 59 days on market, condo-heavy inventory is moving slowly with near-zero overbidding. There are 78 units available.
94107 (Potrero Hill / Dogpatch) scores 36 with a $945,000 median, 43 days on market, and 65 units of inventory.
The pattern is unmistakable: downtown, SoMa, and condo-heavy neighborhoods are experiencing real price and demand weakness. These are the data points that fuel the "SF is dead" headlines.
What is actually happening
The data reveals a two-track market:
Single-family homes in westside neighborhoods are hotter than ever. Limited supply, strong schools, and family-oriented buyers create fierce competition. Overbidding of 15-34% is the norm, not the exception.
Condos in downtown-adjacent neighborhoods are oversupplied and under-demanded. The shift to remote and hybrid work reduced demand for small urban units near offices. New construction delivered in 2020-2023 added supply right as demand pulled back.
The city-wide median obscures this split. When you average a 34% overbid in 94146 with a -3.4% underbid in 94105, you get a "moderate" number that describes neither market accurately.
What this means for buyers
If you are buying a single-family home in the western neighborhoods, prepare for competition. Come in with strong pre-approval, escalation clauses, and expect to bid 10-25% over asking. Work with an agent who knows the specific zip code.
If you are buying a condo downtown, you have leverage. Negotiate aggressively, ask for credits, and do not feel pressured by listing prices. With 50-80 units of inventory in some zip codes, sellers are competing for you.
If you want the best of both worlds, look at transitional neighborhoods like 94131 (Glen Park, competitiveness 55) or 94118 (Inner Richmond, competitiveness 61) where competition is real but not overwhelming.
Explore live SF neighborhood data on BidNest -- see all San Francisco neighborhoods with competitiveness scores, overbidding trends, and inventory levels updated regularly. Create a free account to save neighborhoods and track changes over time.